"We need money. We need technology. We need support. But what we most need is to remain the ones who decide our own future" - Lyonel Trouillot (from article)
It's been nearly three weeks since the earthquake in Haiti. My mother has watched the news every day, looking for hope, good news, or for Louisiana's General Russell Honoré to take over like he did in New Orleans after Katrina. Tonight, she asked me: "Well, Mark, what would you do?" Well, Mom, this is it.
Who the hell do you think you are?
Nobody. I'm a student of international development. My knowledge is patchy, my background is thin. And this is not, by any means, "how to rebuild Haiti." But after hearing too many people throw up their hands at the question of what should be done--or cynically arguing that nothing can be done--I thought some positive suggestions might be in order.
If this post is to create any value, it will be in the discussions it provokes. I ask two things: First, As you blow holes in pieces of my plan or another reader's, offer up an alternate solution. If we build up as we tear down, we might actually come up with something. Second, if you know of people doing any of these things in Haiti already, please share them.
The Aid Trap
To begin, let's talk about what to do with all of the aid money flowing into (and promised to) Haiti right now. That's a tremendous, and time-sensitive asset. It's also a real and potential danger. If that aid money is used poorly, in five years Haiti will look much like it did before January 12. Here's how we can use it well:
- Use those foreign currency reserves to dollarize, immediately. Haiti's economy has always been, and will always be, principally tied to US markets. Working with the dollar eliminates the specter of inflation, a variable which will otherwise haunt any Haitian recovery effort.
- Set up small loan offices all over the country, like the US did in Europe after World War II, in order to get money into the hands of Haitian entrepreneurs (See here for a recent book about a Marshall Plan for Africa).
- Contract foreign design and architecture firms at going market rates to rebuild Haitian roads, hospitals, and bridges. But add a contractual obligation that they create and train Haitian-run businesses to do that work, and then leave after a set period of time. Kick-off suggestions of capable firms: Arup and CH2M Hill.
- Build the Haitian economy in two ways: first, provide tax incentives or subsidies to companies considering investing in Haiti. Second, create a similar subsidy or tax incentive--diminishing with time--to foreign companies who purchase key Haitian exports.
The Basics: Health and Education
That's all pretty dry economic stuff, but now that we've mopped up most of that aid money, what to do with all of those volunteers? Their intentions are noble, but we all know intentions aren't enough; oftentimes those volunteers are even a net drain on resources. What volunteers do have is a commodity often sorely lacking in poverty-stricken places: trust. Haitians do not trust their government, do not trust the US government, but do trust that those young foreign volunteers are there to "do good," whatever that means. So, let's transfer that trust back to other Haitians.
Both Brazil and Mexico have experimented successfully in the last ten years with conditional cash transfers: if a family shows their child has been in school and regularly seen by a doctor, that family gets a handful of cash to spend how they see fit. Could this work in Haiti, schools and clinics have been devastated?
With regard to schools, it's the teacher, not the locale, that matters. Set up temporary tent schools: difficult, full-day schools based on the examples set in the US by Yes Prep and KIPP charter schools. Use remaining food aid to provide children who attend school with a free breakfast and lunch. Have each classroom run jointly by a paid Haitian teacher-in-training and one of the fresh-faced foreign do-gooders. The volunteer sparks local trust; the teacher has an extra body in the classroom until he/she learns the ropes.
Medical care? Well, we know there's not enough medical care, period, and there's unlikely to be for a very long time. But many basic diagnoses don't require extensive medical training. Train and pay public health workers to be able to do basic check-ups, relieving pressure on the precious few in-country doctors. Again, partner one local-in-training with a foreign volunteer. Together, those two can sign off on the medical check ups required for families to get their conditional cash transfers.
Next steps
So. The aid money/food is all used up, children are back in schools, money is in the hands of families and small business owners, investing is flowing in and exports are on their happy way out. That leaves, at the very least, the task of a) developing and training a security force and b) reforesting the resource-depleted Haitian soil. I know little to nothing about building police forces in developing countries, so I'm hoping for suggestions there. As to reforestation, I'm most interested in Brazil's payments to local landowners to protect forests. Why couldn't that work in Haiti? In terms of agriculture, there are smart people (like Amul in India) who have already figured out how to source local foodstuffs from tiny local producers, creating jobs and keeping cash in-country.
Deciding their own future
This plan, I hope, hews a path bound on one side by the exhortations of Lyonel Trouillot for Haitian-led growth, and on the other by the acknowledgement that it may be some time before Haiti stands alone. If we can provide some ideas as to how Haitians might shape their own future, let's do it. What are your ideas?
(Note: this post edited slightly from its original version, thanks to my editors)
6 comments:
Enjoyed this read. Going to Haiti march 13th to set up a medical clinic in Jeremie which is about 100mi from PAP. The organization I'm going with is building a medical facility but it's still under construction. Will post progress from our trip on my blog if you'd like to follow our medical team. Mrsmadole.blogspot.com
Hey Mark,
A couple questions about the economics, which are more information seeking than "got you": first, with dollarization, do you think this was a step that Haiti should have considered before the earthquake? I'm no economist, but Chet is, and we've talked at length about how dollarization is a last-ditch effort to end inflation. Has the situation deteriorated enough to warrant this? Second- it was my understanding that the Marshall Plan did the most for the countries that already had sufficient manufacturing infrastructure. The money from the Marshall Plan could then be used to rebuild roads, refit factories, and restart manufacturing. Does Haiti have his sort of infrastructure? From my understanding (and I have not done read the new book, while I'd like to), the Marshall Plan was "successful" because the US made money and didn't hurt recovery too much.
I like the parts of the plan about use of volunteers. I think pairing them with a medical office or a teacher may be the best way to use them. This may also lead to openings for Haitians when these volunteers leave, although I worry that volunteers will take away from locals' abilities to get back to work if this is a model to create jobs.
Mark,
I'm with Mike on this one. Dollarization is an extreme last resort, saved for countries with problems like crippling hyper-inflation or defaulting loans. While yes, it is effective at controlling inflation and building trust for governments that have none, it takes away the option of monetary policy. As far as I can remember, no country that has ever dollarized has come off of the currency.
What I would suggest is a currency peg (or board). Here, Haiti sets a rate that it will exchange dollars for (effectively setting exchange rates with every country in the world). Haiti keeps its currency (which is a good thing long term) and still gets the inflation-offsetting effects. They are a poor country that is suffering from a natural disaster, not an economic one. I think they don't need the extra guarantees. Remember, most of the world was pegged to the dollar for inflation
for decades after WWII.
I like the teacher training paired with food for school attendance. I have read how successful those incentives programs have been, and I think it could work here as well.
I also worry that small business loans, Marshall plan style, will not be enough. Haiti's biggest exports are: apparel, manufactures, oils, cocoa, mangoes, coffee (CIA world factbook). I could be wrong, but a lot of those sound like they have the kind of infrastructure (either buildings or trees) that can be destroyed in an earthquake and take a lot of time and money to rebuild. Some of the aid money probably needs to be here to get the economy back on track. I also feel you may have neglected the role of public works projects funded with foreign aid. With the super high unemployment and percentage of the population in poverty, getting the country back out building roads, schools, and dams could be a big temporary boost. I know its hard to pick good projects, but maybe foreign companies could be hired on the market, design the projects, and then use local labor (and lots of it).
Reforestation is hard work (though I like the sound of it, and will actually get to do some with Duke while they are down here. zoom ZOOM zoom). Getting some foundation to donate saplings (or raise money for it) and then pay people to plant them could be anther good use of the influx of aid and goodwill.
The final thing I wonder about is food security long term. I know nothing about this, but Bibi does. Is this a perfect time to diversify crops and change diet? Should the aid money be used to buy rice seeds so they can have food come November? I couldn't tell you.
Mark, as always, this is way over my head, but I am soaking it all in. I was reading on cnn that several countries have forgiven haiti's debt. I was thinking that this is a great first step but honestly, I couldnt even recall what type of government they have in the country. Its back to more reading for me. I am sadly uneducated just as my good friend britney , who called me the day the quake happened and asked if I heard about the earth quake in "Hottie" .
Thanks for your comments so far, folks. I've had a half-dozen more email me directly, and will post Round II sometime in the next week or so.
Got to (Mark) hand it chapstin for bringing up the debt reference. That's crucial in trying to clean up the remnants of colonization. And, let’s face it, the resulting poverty is the biggest problem this country has in overcoming a crisis like this.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2823835420100129
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